Theory-Based Evaluation (TBE)

Unpacking the 'How' and 'Why' of Program Impact

Theory-Based Evaluation (TBE) is an approach that assesses the effectiveness of a program by examining its underlying theory of change. Going beyond measuring outcomes, TBE explores how and why a program works by systematically testing the causal pathways linking activities to expected results.

• Causal pathway analysis — Examining the mechanisms that connect program inputs to ultimate outcomes
• Assumption testing — Validating the premises on which program design and implementation are based
• Process illumination — Revealing how changes occur, not just if they occurred
• Evidence-based refinement — Transforming initial program theories into improved models through evaluation insights
• Complex intervention assessment — Addressing multiple interdependent components that influence program success
• Stakeholder engagement — Incorporating perspectives from beneficiaries and implementers to validate change theories
• Cross-sector application — Effective for health initiatives, educational programs, technology adoption, and creative industries
• Counterfactual consideration — Exploring alternative explanations for observed outcomes

Unlike traditional evaluations that focus solely on outputs and impact, TBE provides a structured way to analyze the mechanisms driving change. This approach is particularly valuable for complex interventions with multiple influencing factors and stakeholders, ensuring evaluators understand not just what worked, but precisely how and why it worked—creating a foundation for improved program design and implementation.